‘Market Watch’: "Una Catalunya independent seria perfectament viable"

El mitjà digital d’informació financera afirma que 

"no és difícil argumentar que Catalunya estaria millor si fos independent"

Nerea Rodríguez

El mitjà digital d’informació financera ‘Market Watch’ ha publicat un article on fa referència a Catalunya i al procés sobiranista, on assegura que “no és difícil argumentar que Catalunya estaria millor si fos independent”, i afegeix: “En realitat, no hi ha cap raó per la qual Catalunya no hauria de ser perfectament viable com a nació independent, igual que no hi havia cap raó per dir que Escòcia no podria prosperar per si sola tampoc. Amb 7,5 milions de persones, seria el 99 país més gran del món, i hi ha altres 94 membres de les Nacions Unides que són més petits”.

En aquesta línia, afirma que “Catalunya tindria un producte intern brut de $ 314 mil milions, segons els càlculs de l'OCDE, el que faria que fos l'economia 34 més gran del món. Això la faria més gran que Portugal o Hong Kong, que són perfectament viables per si mateixes. El seu PIB per càpita seria de 35.000 dòlars, el que la faria més rica que Corea del Sud, Israel o Itàlia”.

L’article es refereix a Catalunya com “un petit país amb una orgullosa història. Una rica història econòmica. I un intent audaç per la independència d'un veí aclaparador”. Alhora explica que “fa unes setmanes va ser Escòcia a la recerca de trencar amb el Regne Unit. Ara és Catalunya buscant trencar amb Espanya. Però la unitat per la independència de Catalunya és una amenaça molt més gran per als mercats europeus del que ho ha estat mai l'independentisme escocès”.

I ofereix tres raons per les quals això és així: “En primer lloc, és molt més probable que passi -mentre que Escòcia tenia poc incentiu econòmic per trencar, Catalunya té un munt. En segon lloc, la independència de Catalunya posa en perill l'estabilitat de la moneda única. I, finalment, mentre que Londres es va mostrar relativament relaxada amb la possibilitat de perdre Escòcia, Madrid no està ni molt menys relaxada amb la possibilitat de perdre Catalunya”.

El ‘Market Watch’ destaca també que “el moviment per la independència de Catalunya ha estat cobrant força des de fa molts anys. Però en aquest moment, sembla haver arribat a un punt d'inflexió”. El problema, afegeix, “és que el govern espanyol ha rebutjat el dret dels catalans a decidir”, tot i que assegura que, si malgrat aquesta suspensió, Catalunya vota per la independència “serà difícil resistir-se a aquesta concessió”.

Opinion: Catalonia is a far bigger threat to Europe than Scotland was

Messy breakup in Spain could unravel eurozone

People hold a giant Catalan flag during a demonstration organized by Catalonian separatist during celebrations of the Catalonian National Day (Diada) on September 11, 2011 in Barcelona. Many Catalonians demonstrate every September 11 to demand recognition of their national rights as well as a greater degree of self-governance. AFP PHOTO/LLUIS GENE (Photo credit should read LLUIS GENE/AFP/Getty Images)

By: Matthew Lynn

A small nation with a proud history. A rich economic history. And a bold bid for independence from an over-bearing neighbor. A few weeks ago it was Scotland looking to break away from the United Kingdom. Now it is Catalonia looking to break away from Spain.

The Scottish question has been settled — at least for the time being. But the drive for Catalonian independence is a far bigger threat to the European markets than the Scottish independence movement ever was.

Why? There are three main reasons. First, it is far more likely to happen — while Scotland had little economic incentive to break away, Catalonia has plenty. Second, Catalonian independence threatens the stability of the single currency. And finally, while London was relatively relaxed about losing Scotland, Madrid is not at all relaxed about losing Catalonia. The argument could turn very ugly.

The markets took a while to wake up to the threat posed by a Scottish breakaway, but when they did they wobbled. Likewise, they have not yet woken up to the threat Catalonia poses — but when they do, it could trigger a substantial dive.

The Catalonian independence movement has been gathering strength for many years. But right now, it appears to have reached a tipping point.

Following the Scottish vote, the regional government of Catalonia set its own independence referendum for Nov. 9. The question will be very simple. Do you want to remain a part of Spain or not?

The trouble is, the Spanish government has flatly rejected the right of Catalans to choose. The constitutional court has rejected the vote, and it remains to be seen whether it goes ahead. If it does, and Catalans vote yes, it will be hard to resist granting its independence. After all, the days when people were forced to remain in a state against their democratic will are meant to be long behind us.

In reality, there is no reason why Catalonia should not be perfectly viable as an independent nation, just as there was no reason why Scotland could not prosper on its own either. With 7.5 million people, it would be the 99th biggest country in the world: hardly huge, but there are another 94 United Nations members that are smaller.

It would have a gross domestic product of $314 billion, according to calculations by the OECD, which would make it the 34th largest economy in the world. That would make it bigger than Portugal or Hong Kong, which are perfectly viable by themselves. Its GDP per capita would be $35,000, which would make it wealthier than South Korea, Israel or Italy. There is nothing for anyone to be afraid of there.

And yet, when it looked briefly as if Scotland might break away from the U.K., the pound wobbled, and share prices in London took a hammering. That was despite the fact a Scottish breakaway would have relatively little impact on the wider economy. A Catalan succession would be far more serious for the European economy and markets.

Here’s why.

 

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